If so, you are welcome.
A little about us...
The Hedtke (pronounced Head Key) Institute was created to bring together
a diverse group of very broad, creative thinkers with practical
intelligence, to develop ideas, solve problems, develop solutions,
envision new technology, and to develop “a strategy
for the future of humanity”.
This systems approach to considering all of the major
issues confronting us on the planet today is the goal
to produce a new set of ideas that could be the seeds
of a conscious evolution of our species to new ways
of thinking, new values and new tools.
Over the length of its existence, many thousands of people
will be included in the interchange of ideas and communication of new concepts.
How do we accomplish this task, when there are so many opinions
and diverse experience?
Simply join us, review a posted problem and then send your solutions.
Perhaps a consensus may not be reached on some things,
however truths are always true no matter who expresses them!
The key to any solution is to use your head...
Well, what do you think, to recoin a phrase?
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At The Hedtke Institute we do scenarios. We think of ways to solve
the problems for humanity with solutions and options, for we believe that
they are the most effective tool currently available for systematically
considering the future. Some of humanity wants to know about the future
of their marketplace, or a major contributing factor to their operating
environment, like technology. Others are concerned about possible big
events - surprises - that might occur unexpectedly and fundamentally
shift the status quo. Perhaps the concern is a specific location, or
the consideration of the purchase of a major asset and want to have
a sense of what might change the present situation that makes
that a good decision -- all of these are good candidates for scenario
planning. Scenarios can also be used as the basis for developing an
organizational vision - a plan - a particularly powerful role.
Join us by posting your solution, brevity and simplicity are encouraged.
Your solution will have your byline attached to provide you appropriate
credit and recognition. This venue is for budding thinkers as well as
gifted sages alike!
People attempt to think about the future in quite a variety
of ways. Some try to predict what might happen. Others make forecasts
or projections. Some extrapolate trends. But all of these approaches have
fundamental flaws: it is NOT impossible to predict the future
(however, it is difficult to do at least to some extent at this time).
One can go to the fundamental mathematics of the situation and find
that in highly complex situations, a very minor change in the initial
conditions (or of some element during the evolving process) will
result in major shifts in the end point. Therefore, it is essentially
impossible to identify and catalog the relationships of all of the
potential contributing factors at any one time, so similarly, it is
extremely difficult to anticipate the future that will arrive with
any level of confidence.
So what do you do if you want to methodically look at the future?
Right now, the best answer is scenarios - rigorously designed
mental images of the most significant likely possibilities that might
evolve, developed around specific issues that are most important to you
or your organization. This process, if done well, will essentially produce
a spectrum of plausible futures that effectively brackets the horizon.
You will be able to see most, if not all, of the likely big possible
situations.
Thus armed, the effective strategist can then begin to consider the
potential implications of each future world, and begin to put into
place the contingency plans for dealing with both the opportunities
and hazards that might arrive. This alone is usually worth the effort,
for it quickly illuminates one’s perspective and immediately
provides a larger, sophisticated, future-oriented context for evaluating
day-to-day events. News stories are suddenly seen in a different light
- as possible contributing factors for one or more plausible futures.
As is the case in other disciplines as well, a large amount of the
value of scenario building takes place in the process rather than the
product. That is, in the consideration of a perspective of what might
happen, one methodically identifies and confronts the majority of the
active players that influence the life of an organization and considers
what the roles and potential impact are for each of them as they interact
with all of the others. Changes in government regulation, international
economic health, technological breakthroughs, social value shifts, even
the very reporting of manufactured news, the environmental and
population pressures - all are considered at the same time. That is
something most of us don’t get a chance to do very often, so it
is guaranteed to be loaded with insight.
Again, since you may actually predict the future, in a limited capacity,
it is unlikely that any of the scenarios will evolve in quite the form
that was considered. What will actually happen is some of one future
and part of another... but having considered all of the possibilities
before the fact, the effective scenarist will immediately recognize
the evolving future in terms that are familiar and significant. The
future has order when seen in this way. It is not just a random
emergence of events.
Perhaps the most powerful scenario is creating the desired future.
After completing the process of developing an initial set of
scenarios the strategist can look across the spectrum of possible
futures and begin to develop an image of the future that is
particularly desired. This future can be methodically designed
and shaped to an organization’s specific capabilities and
resources and therefore become a very pivotal device for helping
individuals to “see” what they can become. This story of
the future puts a face on an otherwise abstract set of objectives.
Instead of simply having a goal of say, a sustainable economy,
a good scenario paints the picture of what a world would look
like that was truly sustainable - what the players would do,
what would be the results, etc. These images can be communicated,
of course, using video, film, and multimedia.
A well-crafted scenario allows participants to become proactive,
working specifically for the desired future, rather than sitting
by and passively waiting for what ever the world delivers.
It is a tool for allowing individuals and organizations to “create
their own future,” a perspective that is often an epiphany for the
participants. Are you ready to participate? Email us or submit
your solutions to the posted problems. Thank you in advance!
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